Recent polls for federal politics have seen One Nation rise in the polls to become the default Opposition, displacing the Liberal/National coalition. Discouragement with the ability of the Coalition to deliver on anything that the public wants have led the public to deliver a protest vote to One Nation of such a proportion as to make them the prospective alternative government.
The theory that Pauline Hanson could be our next Prime Minister has a number of problems, not least of which is the fact that she would have to shift from the Senate to the House in a specific seat. One of the other main problems is the requirement of an alternative government to provide options for a full shadow cabinet. Perhaps it is forgiveable in the short term, given ON's current Parliamentary members are so sparse compared to their poll numbers. Structurally, though, the problem came to a head this week in the wake of Hanson's "monoculture" rant during her National Press Club address. Three polls this week showed Labor clawing back three points from both ON and the Libs, and Hanson's personal ratings dropping by a lot more. That's enough evidence to judge that there's a real shift in electoral judgement.
(Sorry for the throat-clearing prose telling you what you already know... it's painfully habitual, from my journalism training. I haven't yet learned how to just dive in with spicy takes like a true blogger, even after all these years. I will put it in italics in future, so you can skip it.)
There is no such thing in Australia as a "monoculture". When pressed, Pauline Hanson threw up the names of Paul Hogan and Norman Gunston as examples of the culture she likes. Paul Hogan, to his eternal credit, answered by calling Pauline Hanson a "pelican". This peculiarly Australian insult is not particularly well-defined, but I see it as being this: a weird white bird with a big mouth, stinking of fish.
Right-wingers can't identify any part of Australian culture they like. They may mention Dave Hughes, but they don't like his comedy, just when he gobs off about taxes on socials. They can't even bring themselves to cite Barry Humphries, who was a similar late convert to scrofulous right-wing whinging but wore womens' clothing so that's right out. A similar thing is happening in America right now, where even Milli Vanilli rejected Donald Trump.
The next argument I get on this point is that Australian culture is actually our freedoms and laws. Bullshit! If Pelican meant democracy, she would have said democracy, not culture. What these idiots actually hate is Muslims, so they pretend Sharia law is going to crawl from under their beds and enslave their children.
One Nation's polling numbers were the softest yet seen in Australian politics. It is a protest vote, not serious. At the first moment when Hanson's silliness endured a skerrick of critical scrutiny, it was shown to be contentless.
Does that mean ON can't win an election? Clearly not. Trump got elected twice. The party may get into a power-sharing arrangement with the Libs in Victoria later this year, if current poll trends hold up in November.
It does mean, nevertheless, that ON can't govern. Its fervent cultists think that is a feature, not a bug. I have faith that a significant majority of voters don't want to burn everything down DOGE-style, but would prefer to see leaders who can solve problems instead of creating them.
